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Covid 19: was Re: Update to Countywide Order to Shelter At Home; Cancellation of all in-person BerkeleyLUG meetups for April



Was arguing with a coworker yesterday.  

He was saying this is an over reaction. Only 3,000 deaths when a normal flu is 60,000 
and no big reaction to the normal flu.  I say look at the fucking curve and bring it up on my phone.  It is doubling every 2 to 3 days.  He says next month it will be 6,000 deaths and what is the big problem.  No, I say, it is doubling every 2 to 3 days so in 2 weeks we will surpass the numbers for the flu.  [32x is doubling 5 times which is in 10 days if doubling every 2 or 15 days if doubling every 3]  
Today I talk with my friend and he is saying the same shit.  
Where are they getting this stuff?  

The picture of the curve should be clear.  

A lot of talk on the Conspire list about this: people not understanding exponential growth.  But I hadn't expected to be confronted with such lack of understanding.  

Just venting ... 

I put the Covid 19: tag so you can filter if you want.  

Stay home 

Thomas

On Wed, Apr 1, 2020 at 8:44 AM goossbears <acohen36@gmail.com> wrote:
Hey all,

Directly quoting yesterday's Alameda County Public Health Dept's Coronavirus
Disease (COVID-19) Situation Update at http://acphd.org/2019-ncov.aspx :
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
On March 31, Alameda County joined six neighboring health jurisdictions
to extend through May 3, 2020, our jointly issued Shelter in Place Order to
reduce the spread of COVID-19.

While the prior Shelter Order has been effective in slowing the rate of
transmission of COVID-19 (“flattening the curve”), it is not enough.
Given the continued increase in cases—more than eightfold since the
Order was first issued on March 15th—the Bay Area Health Officers have
determined that stricter social distancing is needed for a longer period of time.

The goal remains to slow the rate of spread, prevent deaths, and stop the
health care system from becoming overwhelmed. This Order is in effect
until 11:59 PM on May 3, 2020, alongside the open-ended Stay at Home
Order issued by Governor Newsom on March 19th; where more restrictive,
our local order prevails.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

- The Summary of the Alameda County Public Health Dept's more
restrictive Shelter in Place Order is at
http://www.acphd.org/media/563713/summary-updated-shelter-in-place-order-20200331.pdf

- As before, the offical County of Alameda 'Order to Shelter At Home' is at http://acgov.org/

Needless to say, all scheduled live, in-person BerkeleyLUG meetups will not
be happening at Cafe Blue Door (or probably anywhere else) this month.

Hope that everyone stay safe.

-Aaron

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