So there would be a 50% chance that Jonathan follows Toby given
that he's
from NJ. So from what I understand, in order to find the
probability that
Jonathan follows Toby given that he's in Philly Lambda, and he's
from NJ I
would multiple the probabilities of each together.
1 * .5 = 50%
So I think that I could say that there's a 50% chance that a person
from NJ
and in Philly Lambda follows Toby. Is that correct given this
simplistic
approach, or am I doing something wrong?
This assumes the attributes are completely independent of each other.
Take the case of language attributes, e.g. who uses Perl and Lisp.
Suppose both were 50% (of the people who follow Toby). By this logic,
the final probability would be 25%. But what if the exact same people
who use Lisp also use Perl, then the real answer would be 50% because
the additional attribute tells you nothing. It would only be 25% if
they were completely independent.
I don't know anything about the other stuff you mentioned (Bayes
classifier,
regression analysis) so I'll have to try and read a bit about them
and see
how I may be able to use them.
You can do this in Excel. The help is helpful. Basic linear
regression is built in. To do more advanced stuff, do Tools->Add Ins,
add Analysis and Solver. Then you can do Tools->Data Analysis.