Kevin Brosius on 30 Dec 2004 14:57:42 -0000


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RE: [PLUG] Tis the season for computer buying?


Aaron wrote:
> 
> I'm starting to wonder if prices may be about as good as they get for a
> few months. With large parts of south-east asia having bigger concerns
> then our computer needs (that whole being in the middle of massive
> natural disaster thing) if we're going to see price shocks in the coming
> weeks. I haven't heard anyone talking about it yet (rightly more
> concerned with the more immedate problems probably), I would be surpised
> if the semi-conductor industry gets away from this without major impact
> as well. Granted I'm not analyst, but seems pretty clear to me.

Hmm, interesting theory...  Working in semi-con equipment myself, I went
looking for a good map of the tsunami damaged regions.  I didn't find a
lot of detail, but http://www.nbc4.tv/index.html has an interactive map
that's decent.

As far as semicon assembly goes, there is a bunch in taiwan (completely
unaffected from what I can tell) and in some malaysian countries (but
more in the Philippines, ie TI) than in the countries bordering the
Indian Ocean.  It's interesting to note that the estimated deaths in
Malaysia are 40-50, even though the quake was off the tip of Sumatra and
close by.  So, maybe we will see some impact, but it shouldn't be
directly from damage and people killed.  Maybe from secondary effects,
like aid support.

-- 
Kevin
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