zuzu on 27 Oct 2007 02:11:52 -0000 |
On 10/26/07, Matthew Rosewarne <mrosewarne@inoutbox.com> wrote: > > Well, we shot past the Europeans for several reasons, some our own doing, and > some their doing. Our problem comes from supply and demand, in the following > situation: > > Act 1: Mid 20th century > The USA manufacturing base, pumped up by the war effort and public works > projects (for reference, not free market economics) has overwhelming > productive capabilities. The US also has cutting-edge research and > technology, yielding a pace of innovation seldom seen in history. The > innovators dream up new technologies, the industry manufactures them, and the > populace (now wealthy from being the source of that innovation and > production) consume more than ever. > > Act 2: Late 20th century > Seeing a way to increase proftits, US companies open manufacturing > facilities in impoverished but stable countries, and subsequently start > closing facilities in the US. Those consumers not initially effected by the > shift encourage this behaviour, as it results in lower prices for consumer > goods. Since manufacturing jobs start to dry up, much of the population must > turn to fields such as services, technology, or finance in order to make a > living. Fairly soon, lower-level jobs in these other fields are also > relocated, causing the population to fall back more on the fields that > remain, particularly the knowledge- and service-oriented fields. > > Act 3: Early-Mid 21st century > Having gained enough wealth to develop strong educational and financial > infrastructures of their own, the formerly-impoverished countries no longer > require the innovation or financial management of the US. The US, having > abandoned manufacturing, technology, and now inevitably most of the other > trades at which it formerly excelled, slides into recession, since there is > no longer much for it to export to the other countries. The only solid > sources of income remaining are agriculture and raw materials, which in > themselves do not provide much of a trade surplus. The lack of exports > causes income to dry up, resulting in wage loss and unemployment, in turn > causing our consumption to plummet. Now that the population can no longer > afford them, the services market suffers. Without a strong partner to help > rebuild our economy, like our Marshall plan did for Europe after WWII, it is > a long time before the US sees prosperity once again. > > > So what I'm saying is, we can't rely on our intellect as our only export to > the world, since as they begin to supply "intellectual capital" themselves, > there is much less demand for ours. If we still had a broad range of > supply-side occupations, particularly manufacturing, it would be enough to > achieve an equitable balance. I'm not saying we should let poorer countries > rot, nor am I saying we should all drop out of college to make steel, but > that we shouldn't sacrifice the next decades of our economy in exchange for a > higher stock price next quarter. I don't mean to blithely dismiss this much writing without considering it more, but after my first reading you seem to implicitly assume that economics is a zero-sum game. perhaps this is because you're challenging the assumption that all trade is both-benefit? ___________________________________________________________________________ Philadelphia Linux Users Group -- http://www.phillylinux.org Announcements - http://lists.phillylinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-announce General Discussion -- http://lists.phillylinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug
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